Once a year, just before the start of the New Year, the Ferrari Consulting and Research Group and the Supply Chain Matters Blog provide a series of predictions for the coming year. We have maintained this tradition since the founding of the blog in 2008.
Readers can view the entire listing by clicking on this web link: 2013 Predictions for Global Supply Chains.
In our Part One posting, we explored our first two predictions for 2013, the overall economic and business challenges, and our prediction of inbound commodity prices.
Part Two posting explored predictions #3 and #4, which noted a continued renaissance in U.S, based manufacturing and the very important challenge of supply chain skills development and retention.
Part Three posting dived into Prediction #5, our industry specific supply chain challenges prediction.
Our Part Four posting address the critical need for supply chain resiliency and responsiveness in 2013 as well an increased penetration of Chinese companies in other industry supply chains.
Part Five predicted broader umbrella supply chain accountability in 2013.
Part Six predicted higher levels of action required in the control and mitigation of broad theft and counterfeit materials among industry supply chains.
In this final deep-dive posting, we explore our prediction related to cloud computing adoption in 2013.
Prediction #10: Cloud computing and managed services options, enabling supply chain business processes, will continue to gain more traction, provided that vendors resolve current lingering customer concerns.
The momentum for adoption of cloud computing technology in both B2B and supply chain business processes accelerated in 2012. The reasons were a perfect storm of business forces. High uncertainty surrounding the global economic climate across multiple industries drove cash preservation strategies and a consequent reluctance to expend high levels of up-front capital. Multiple disruptions and challenges affecting industry supply chains uncovered needs to quickly augment business processes and enhance needs for broader intelligence and quicker decision-making. Cost control initiatives turned more towards aggressive reduction in IT owned infrastructure and consequent annual operating and applications integration costs. Small and medium sized businesses were especially attracted to cloud options because of the factors noted above. All of these business and functional forces made cloud computing a more attractive option.
We expect this trend to continue in 2013 along with augmentation of cloud computing with managed supply chain services. We concur with IDC’s prediction that industry focused Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS) information, collaboration, control and decision-making models, hosted in a cloud environment, will gain more interest and adoption over the coming months and years. The open question remains which cloud model will be preferred, private or public.
Enterprise vendor SAP, in its Sales and Operations Planning, powered by SAP HANA application, is a cloud based offering that manages one of the most critical business decision processes for any firm. Similarly, Oracle has long-term plans to offer a full supply chain management support capability via private or public cloud platforms. IBM has been building-out a broad offering of cloud-based, B2B support applications that address mission critical processes of customer fulfillment and supply chain resource management.
However, the growth of these options in cloud computing will be dependent on the ability of technology vendors to resolve fundamental and lingering customer concerns surrounding cloud computing. Many vendors have shown a bit of arrogance in constructing legal agreements surrounding cloud computing contracts. They insert clauses in contracts that absolve the cloud provider from any and all liabilities, and in some cases, state that the client will hold ultimate responsibility for anything that goes wrong, including data loss. Prospective customers are compelled to seek legal advice, only to discover that the customer’s maximum recovery is capped, or would have to initiate an expensive and time-consuming lawsuit to recover any business interruption or data breach damages. In an article published in December 2012, Legal concerns curb corporate cloud adoption, ComputerWorld magazine quotes prospective customer attorneys as describing certain technology vendor contract terms are “offensive”. Since cloud computing is a recent phenomenon, legal precedents are lacking relative to liability and recovery.
Up to now, cloud computing options directed at point applications or non-mission-critical processes may have caused procurement and supply chain functional management teams to overlook or dismiss such provisions. But, as cloud computing options involve much broader, mission critical supply chain processes, the need for legal checks and sign-off are evident, and ComputerWorld points to increased discussion and some confrontation among legal counsel, IT and functional executives, which could slowdown cloud adoption.
Another significant and related concern is that of information security. The year 2012 featured more troubling headlines of hackers penetrating critical industry systems. Some of the world’s most prestigious banks were collectively targeted in attacks by sophisticated and organized hacking groups, as were hydrocarbon production facilities in Saudi Arabia where a virus attack almost took down production of 10 percent of global oil supply. Experts are unsure if latent time-bombs remain in these systems, set to activate a data breach at a certain date.
Higher visibility to interruption of mission critical business services also came to light in 2012. In late December, Netflix suffered an overnight suspension of all of its video streaming services because of a technical problem at its hosted IT infrastructure provider, Amazon Web Services (AWS). This was the third major reported AWS service interruption in 2012, the others involving customer services for Foursquare, Pinterest and Instagram.
As noted, supply chain planning and customer fulfillment systems often fall into the category of a mission-critical business process, subject to internal control and reporting processes. Many of these increased security developments fuel lingering concerns among executives regarding information that may be stored and accessed in a public or hosted cloud. Developments such as these motivate senior executives to continue to favor private based cloud options relative to B2B and supply chain needs.
While larger enterprise type vendors have the financial clout and other global resources to address such concerns, smaller vendors may be at a disadvantage. Vendors often utilize third-party IT infrastructure service providers to host their cloud offerings, which again raises questions as to which parties have ultimate accountability and liability, and how that may relate to the customer’s declared internal control processes.
A continued highly uncertain economic environment and a need for more responsive implementation of automation directed at global supply chain responsiveness and resiliency will continue to fuel cloud computing interest in 2013, provided that vendors respond to security, control and contractual related customer concerns.
This concludes our series of deep dives concerning 2013 Predictions for Global Supply Chains.
We extend a loud shout-out to all global supply chain professionals for their incredible achievements and responsive actions during 2012. Another challenging year has passed and yet another is forthcoming. Then again, supply chain is never boring.
We trust that our ten 2013 predictions help you and your supply chain teams to think about objectives and resource plans and be adequately prepared in 2013.
The full complete copy of our 2013 Predictions for Global Supply Chains, which includes even more detail, will be shortly made available in a no cost research report available for download in our Research Center. We will advise when the final report is ready.
Throughout 2013, Supply Chain Matters will be providing additional insights related to each of our ten prediction areas, including both an interim and end-of-year report card.
As always, readers are encouraged to comment on these predictions as well as add additional thoughts as to what to expect in 2013.
© 2012 The Ferrari Consulting and Research Group LLC and the Supply Chain Matters Blog. All rights reserved.